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AI Evolution Update (2024)

Dave YuanFounder and Partner, Tidemark

AI is the meteor that threatens to change the SaaS ecosystem and force evolution (and potentially extinction). In early 2023, we kicked off our study of this change by talking to close to 100 companies on practical applications of AI, including hosting two working sessions with 40 executives to understand the impact of AI on the SaaS ecosystem. From those sessions, we came to the initial hypothesis that AI could be neutral or even a tailwind for control point companies, not an extinction event. We published our view in August of 2023 here.

A second wave of adoption has grabbed the hearts and minds of the Valley. This time, the narrative is that AI startups can now offer a product that fully substitutes labor previously performed by in-house staff and third-party software. If AI service providers are able to do that, they can charge on the basis of the value of work and have economics that supersede those of a software company.

Do we think this will happen? Our initial hypothesis is yes, but not in all circumstances. When the conditions are right, if software providers are not nimble, they will be beaten by AI startups. (And we are looking to invest in these native AI companies! Reach out if you want to talk!). However, forward-thinking software companies that occupy control points have strong defenses and may have an opportunity to provide and benefit from AI-powered services instead of facing de facto obliteration.

At Tidemark, we try to open-source our thinking as much as possible to help founders win; however, as investors, we can’t give everything away in public. If you’re an operator or founder, you can request access to the rest of this piece below.